On 30 November, some 75,000 delegates including politicians, ministers, representatives from civil society, the private sector, international organisations and media organisations (including Energy Monitor) will descend on Expo City Dubai for what is expected to be the largest COP ever. Leaders including Pope Francis and King Charles III are set to attend (although US President Joe Biden will not). Why is COP28 the most important COP since Paris in 2015?
In many ways, the 28th annual UN climate conference in Dubai, (literally 鈥楥onference of the Parties鈥�), is expected to be similar to what we have seen before. Talks will largely focus on how to honour the , a legally binding agreement to limit global warming to at least below 2掳C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally 1.5掳C, which has been signed by 195 parties.
For the past few years, ever since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a in 2018 warning that the difference between 1.5掳C and 2掳C is significant, parties have focused on the more ambitious target of 1.5掳C, which would require global emissions to reach 鈥榥et zero鈥� by 2050.
To be on track for net zero 2050, the IPCC has said that emissions will have to drop 45% compared with 2010 levels by 2030. However, current trends have analysts predicting in 2023, a year in which a series of emissions and have been broken.
The also warned this year that the world is likely to experience at least one year where the global average surface temperature exceeds 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels over the next five years. Meanwhile, the recent warned that governments are currently planning to produce 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5掳C.
COP hosts are always expected to impose 鈥渟omething of their own agenda鈥� on proceedings, says Alex Scott from the think tank E3G. This year, that includes new initiatives to tackle the impacts of climate change on health, improve access to finance for fragile and conflict-affected states, as well as a big push for food system transformations.
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By GlobalDataBy the second week of COP28, all eyes will be on the UN negotiations, which are set to result in an agreement that will update climate ambition and policy for the year ahead. All 198 countries who are party to the UNFCCC will have to sign up to the final cover text for the negotiated outcome to be adopted.
Why COP28 matters: The Global Stocktake
There is one major difference in this year鈥檚 COP agenda, however, which has led the Stockholm Environment Institute鈥檚 (SEI) Richard Klein to label it 鈥渢he most important COP since the Paris Agreement鈥� in a recent pre-COP28 briefing hosted by SEI.
That difference is the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake (GS), a process outlined in the Paris Agreement that is the main mechanism through which progress on climate action is assessed. The GS comprises three stages, starting with the gathering and synthesising of information on climate change and climate action from governments, which began at . This is followed by an analysis of progress made in implementing the Paris Agreement (which resulted in a released in September); the third stage will take place at COP28, where findings will be discussed and an appropriate policy response will be agreed upon.
The synthesis report details how the world remains well off track from meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, calling for 鈥渟ystem transformation鈥� on 鈥渁ll fronts鈥�. However, there is hope still , with 鈥渁ctionable solutions鈥� to combat global warming including clean technologies that can be rapidly deployed and action that can be taken to unlock trillions of dollars in investment.
The report also details division (鈥淪ome Parties鈥� note with concern that some developed countries whose emissions already peaked decades ago, commit to achieving net zero GHG emissions only by 2050鈥�), and calls for a significant boost to adaptation efforts (鈥淢ost observed adaptation efforts are fragmented, incremental, sector-specific and unequally distributed across regions鈥�).
鈥淭his is the most important session of the Conference of the Parties since Paris in 2015, because the outcome of the Global Stocktake will basically set the agenda for the next five or 10 years of climate discussions,鈥� says Richard Klein. 鈥淲hat we have seen from the stocktake so far is a mixed bag: We are moving in the right direction, but not nearly fast enough.鈥�
E3G鈥檚 Scott adds that the stocktake is 鈥渢he next stage in the building of the Paris Agreement architecture, which is the global governance that we have had on climate change since 2015鈥�.
鈥淭he policy outcome of the stocktake is probably not going to land at this COP, but what we will get is a political direction on where countries want to go, given what we know right now,鈥� she adds.
Loss and damage
Beyond the Global Stocktake, another key task for negotiators is getting up and running. This fund was arguably the main legacy of , and promises to compensate developing economies that are least responsible for climate change for climate impacts.
Ahead of COP28, negotiators reached agreement on a for the fund, with the World Bank set to host it on an interim basis for four years. Developing countries have already expressed disappointment that there has been no immediate capitalisation of the fund, and no clear language making rich countries liable for financial losses related to climate change-induced .
While the framework 鈥渄elivered on its mandate鈥�, it was 鈥渢he furthest thing imaginable from a success鈥�, said Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at NGO ActionAid USA.
鈥赌�COP28 will be crucial in determining what the fund will look like, and how it will operate in practice. Loss and damage is set to feature some of the most contested negotiations 鈥� and should they fail, bad blood may hinder other areas of COP28 discussion.
鈥淭here is a lot left to be decided on loss and damage at COP28, and there is no guarantee that a final decision will be reached鈥�, E3G鈥檚 Scott adds.
Antony Froggatt, deputy director of the climate programme at think tank Chatham House, believes that we should be vigilant of pledges that are made to provide loss and damage funding.
鈥淥bviously, there is a tendency for countries to move existing climate finance or development financing into new funding mechanisms, rather than allocating new funds,鈥� he says. 鈥淟oss and damage negotiations will be a crucial test to the goodwill of rich countries to actually help out.鈥�
Adaptation and mitigation at COP28
COP28 is also set to see landmark climate adaptation negotiations, with governments due to adopt a framework for achieving the Paris Agreement鈥檚 'global goal on adaptation' (GGA). No clear definition of the goal was provided in the Paris Agreement; the aim of the GGA is to develop guidelines to allow countries to have more focused, measurable and comparable adaptation goals to pursue.
The outcome of the GGA remains unclear, but what we do know is that the world is falling hugely short on . A recent found that the financing gap between requirements and achievements is now at a staggering $194bn鈥�366bn per year. Even as needs continue to grow, international public funding for adaptation in developing economies actually fell by 15% in 2021.
On mitigation, meanwhile, there is expected to be renewed focus on renewables, after G20 leaders agreed in September to 鈥減ursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally鈥�, as well as to double energy efficiency, by 2030.
If countries agree to adopt this target, it would be a 鈥渓andmark moment鈥�, says Froggatt, adding that it 鈥渨ould require a total transformation of the energy sector, even in countries in Europe, which have so far led on renewables penetration globally鈥�.
Scott, meanwhile, expects that 鈥渘ot every country will sign up to a tripling renewables pledge鈥�, but even if it occurs on the sidelines of the main negotiations, she believes a renewables pledge will nonetheless be a key tool to 鈥渂uild up momentum towards the ultimate COP decisions that we need鈥� if the world is to meet its climate goals.
Climate finance
For Klein at the SEI: 鈥淭he elephant in the room is .鈥�
As at previous COPs, negotiations are set to be hugely impacted by the massive need for financial resources to decarbonise and sustainably develop low-income countries, and the reluctance of high-income countries to boost the financing available. One difference this year, though, is the fact that the past 12 months have seen significant ; policymakers will be poised to see how these are incorporated into the climate negotiations.
It will likely remain unknown whether the long-promised $100bn in annual climate finance for developing countries, first promised in 2009 for 2020, and later pushed back to 2025, has been met in 2023. It .
COP28 will see negotiations begin for a new global climate finance target, to replace the $100bn goal after it expires in 2025. Hugely differing opinions on how big this target should be are expected, as well as tension over who is defined as a 鈥渄eveloping country鈥�, with the likes of China and Saudi Arabia (still defined as 鈥渄eveloping鈥�) likely unwilling to join the climate finance contributor base.
The UAE and its fossil fuels
Much criticism ahead of COP28 has focused on the role of the UAE, an oil-dependent economy that is the seventh-biggest oil producer globally, as host. The appointed head of negotiations at COP28 鈥� 鈥� is also CEO of the country鈥檚 national oil company.
The UAE鈥檚 status as a petrostate was further brought to light by a recent Energy Monitor investigation showing how the country is set to produce just under . Fossil fuels are by far the largest source of carbon emissions, responsible for 90% of CO鈧� released in 2022, according to .
Opinions remain divided over whether having a petrostate as host really presents a problem for the success of the COP28 negotiations. For example, Armond Cohen, founder of the non-profit Clean Air Task Force (CATF), recently argued at its pre-COP28 briefing that 鈥渟omewhere like the UAE is the best place to have the climate conference鈥�, given 鈥渢he world is still 80% powered by fossil fuels, and demand is still growing鈥�.
鈥淐limate is not a bubble: solutions have to operate within the constraints of physics, economics, local politics and geopolitics. We [CATF] believe[s] the UAE is a perfect place to have the cop because essentially to meeting climate goals,鈥� Cohen said.
For Froggatt at Chatham House, it is important to remember that the UAE is not the first oil and gas producer to host a UN climate conference. 鈥淭he UK hosted COP26, and we have recently seen the extent to which the government is saying: ," he says.
Froggatt adds that it is important, too, not to blame the presidency for the direction of discussions. 鈥淭he presidency is the facilitator, but it is up to national governments to determine what actually happens,鈥� he added.
E3G鈥檚 Scott, meanwhile, points out that the UAE has 鈥減ut a lot of money and a lot of advisors into COP28, and they want it to be a big success鈥�. Nonetheless, she believes that the presidency 鈥渘eeds to be kept on the hook鈥� to deliver a big response to the Global Stocktake. She adds that the country鈥檚 diplomatic capacity 鈥渋s not inherent鈥�, unlike a country such as the UK, which has significant experience leading global events.
was the first conference where fossil fuels 鈥� specifically, 鈥渆fforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies鈥� 鈥� were included in the final cover text of the two weeks of negotiations. The same language was included in the COP27 cover text, although this time a coalition of more than pushed 鈥� and in the end failed 鈥� for the COP26 language on coal to be expanded to include all fossil fuels.
It remains to be seen whether the coalition鈥檚 ambitions will be achieved at COP28 鈥� with Al Jaber as President, this may be tricky.
Significant progress is possible
With so much to be negotiated, and so many countries divided across issues, the outcomes of COP28 remain uncertain. This lack of clarity extends to the very question of who is expected to host the next COP. While an eastern European country is scheduled to host next, according to the UNFCCC framework, Russia is currently refusing to accept any nation that is a member of the EU.
However, even if outcomes remain uncertain, major progress is possible. CATF鈥檚 Lee Beck points to the success of , which was adopted at COP26 and dictates that signatories must reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030, as evidence of just how much progress can be made if countries really work towards it.
鈥淭he methane pledge has really moved towards implementation, with more and more countries signing up, and countries really putting money into the goal,鈥� says Beck, who also spoke at CATF鈥檚 pre-COP28 briefing. Major announcements on methane in the energy, waste and agricultural sectors are expected ahead of COP28, according to CATF. This November has already seen China, the US and EU make major commitments to .
For Froggatt, with the renewables target, the loss and damage fund, and new finance and adaptation targets all on the table, 鈥渢he pieces are certainly there that could make COP28 a major success鈥�.
鈥淲hat needs to happen now is investors, business and countries need to come out of the conference and think: yes we really are rising to the challenge, and we can do this,鈥� he says.
